Betfair Football Trading - My Football Trading System

Is This The Optimum Minute To Enter An O2.5/BTTS Trade?

Since August, I’ve traded 395 matches as a part of my 5K Challenge.

If you don’t know, my aim is to turn a £500 bank into £5,000 using the O2.5 and BTTS markets.

With the winter leagues now done and dusted for the next few months, I thought it would be a good time to review my trades since August and see if I can gain any kind of insight.

Before I speak about all of the different stats and the conclusions I’ve come to, I first wanted to mention the main one which I really wanted to get a greater insight on.

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How To Maximise Value When Football Trading

In this post, I want to just take a moment to highlight an important aspect to trading football matches, which is how to maximise the value that we are getting.

If you follow me with my 5K Challenge you will know that I usually enter my trades by dripping my stakes after around 10 or 15 minutes.

The timing of my entry and the size stakes I use will very much depend on how the game is progressing and whether goals look likely.

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Do Head To Head Trends Matter In Football Trading?

I’m always researching how to make more money from my Betfair football trading and constantly thinking about the many aspects of pre-game analysis which may help develop a more robust and profitable football trading system.

I recently acquired a new book from our tax-dodging friends at Amazon titled “Data-Driven Football Predictions“, “Constructing The Perfect Over 2.5 Goals Betting Strategy For The English Premier League” – by Martin Chamberlain.

Although I will most likely do a full review of the book shortly, I wanted to mention the main crux of the system in this post which is the head to head or H2H stats and trends of the previous meetings between two teams.

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The Best Leagues For Lay The Draw

Just a quick update and insights on picking the correct games for LTD2.

As you may know, I’ve now started to publish some of my own selections once again on the site, but wanted to just touch on the best leagues to use if you are picking your own trades.

With the major European leagues not due to start again until September, we are currently trading the Summer leagues.

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Testing LTD3 – The Golden Goose Of Lay The Draw Systems

I am currently testing my LTD3 system once again which promises to be extremely lucrative with a very high strike rate.

So, way back in 2017/2018 I tested the LTD3 system over a three month period. I recently started testing the system once again and to date have recorded the following figures.

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How Do You Define Value In Football Trading?

In a recent interview, cult football trading expert ‘Psychoff‘ was quoted as saying something along the lines of:-

“Value can’t be defined. Value is a feeling.”

This statement really resonates with me, as I believe that many traders put too much emphasis on stats and not enough emphasis on our feelings and intuition.

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SH LTD – The Golden Ticket?

Over the past year or so (yes, that long), I’ve been testing another lay the draw system that you may have previously seen me refer to on the website as ‘LTD3’.

During this time I traded 116 selections and had a win rate of 85.34% (99 wins).

When testing I was trading the selections similar to the LTD2 system in that I would trade out when one team took a two goal lead. However, if the game went beyond 65’, I would let it run and come out when the next goal was scored for a profit or the game ended goalless, which would result in a loss of around 2.5 pts.

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Should I Use Lay The Draw Insurance?

This is a question I am asked from time to time so thought I would write a short post on the subject.

Firstly, what do we mean by insurance?

So, when we lay the draw or do any other trade we have a liability. Our liability is our maximum potential loss.

So if we lay the draw for for £10 at 3.5 our liability would be £25. 10 x 3.5 – 10 = 25.

By using insurance, we are willing to risk a little more liability in order to minimise our overall risk and try to avoid a bigger loss than we may otherwise experience.

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Winning Is Easy, Losing Is Hard

My recent rare spell of one point losses got me thinking and prompted me to write a short post about losing, our attitudes to it and how we can stop it eating into our confidence.

If you are new to trading, it’s easy to panic after a loss or two. Some will chase losses and blow their trading banks. Or if they just can’t stomach losing, give up all together. After all, that’s what real losers do isn’t it?

So how do you deal with losing trades or heaven forbid, losing runs?

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How To Place A Bet On Betfair Exchange For Less Than £2

At this moment in time, the minimum bet stake you can place on the Betfair Exchange is £2.

Sometimes though, you may want to place a trade for less than £2. For example, if you are testing a system or maybe you are new to football trading and want to test the water.

Whatever the reason, below I will show you how you can trade on Betfair for less than the £2 minimum stake.

The method is similar whether you are backing or laying. You can click on any of the images below to see a larger version.

The first step is to obviously open the market in which you wish to trade. In my case it is the Correct Score market in the Roma v Napoli game.

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